Rage-baiting. Drama-queening. Angertainment.
Have you been reading the news lately?
There’s no hiding it: the noise in our media has reached high levels of hysteria.
The noise is impossible to tune out. Impossible to ignore. And — gosh — you can already see it spilling over into our day-to-day conversations, can’t you?
At the moment, it feels like every man, woman, and child (along with their dog, cat, and goldfish) has an opinion about America’s new trade policy.
We’re getting arguments and counter-arguments. Turbulence and controversy.
But let’s look beyond the emotional spectacle.
For the sake of a balanced perspective, I want to show you two opinion polls that were released in March 2025:
Source: NBC
Source: NBC
This is revealing, isn’t it? As you can see, there’s a clear ideological divide between the Democrats (Team Blue) and the Republicans (Team Red):
- Team Blue appears to be more pessimistic about the state of America — and their pessimism seems to be getting worse.
- Meanwhile, Team Red appears to be more optimistic about the state of America — and their optimism seems to be getting better.
- Indeed, the opposing views of Team Blue and Team Yellow are so far apart, it feels like these people don’t even live on the same planet!
- I dare say, one team is living on Mars. The other team is living on Venus. And in the words of Rudyard Kipling: ‘Never the twain shall meet.’
- So, this raises the question: which perception is accurate? Which perception is real? Which perception is worth paying attention to?
Well, amidst this fog of war, here’s my contrarian outlook:
- Yes, Team Blue and Team Red may have the noisiest opinions. They are loud. They are entrenched. They are uncompromising. But frankly, such opinions don’t interest me.
- Instead, what I find more interesting to observe is what the ‘silent majority’ thinks. This is Team Yellow. The independent voters. Sometimes they vote Left. Sometimes they vote Right. And sometimes they don’t vote at all.
- While Team Yellow doesn’t get a lot of airtime in the news, their strategic value is undeniable.
Source: The Conversation
Survey data from 2023 seems to suggest that most American voters now self-identify as independent:
- This means that Team Yellow has the largest share of the pie at 43%.
- By comparison, Team Blue has 27% of the pie.
- Likewise, Team Red also has 27%.
Now, given that Team Yellow has such a dominant presence here, it’s worth asking: what exactly are they thinking? What matters the most to them? Well, on a day-to-day basis, here are their most pressing concerns:
- ‘Am I going to be okay?’
- ‘Is my family going to be okay?’
- ‘Is the future going to be okay?’
These are simple questions, yes. But make no mistake about it. These are existential issues, and they are incredibly profound:
- Just think back to the 2024 presidential election. Why did Team Blue lose so badly? Well, it’s simple. Team Blue did a poor job of addressing any of Team Yellow’s concerns.
- High inflation is widely considered to be ‘the killer of governments’. America had just experienced the biggest increase in consumer prices in 40 years. And yet Team Blue failed to address this issue. In fact, they kept dodging it. Again and again.
- But denial is not a river in Egypt — and it certainly doesn’t work when you’re dealing with something as painfully obvious as inflationary pressure.
Here’s what Mike Pesca of The Atlantic had to say about Team Blue’s hubris:
Kamala Harris and the Democrats sold themselves as the party of change, freedom, and not being weird. But many American voters saw them instead as prigs, Stepford wives, morons, and condescending smarty-pants.
I’ve been thinking this past week about how the Democratic Party is seen, and it hit me: The Democratic Party resembles that most American of institutions: the HR department.
How true. Self-righteousness seldom pays dividends. But watch out. What goes around also comes around. Now that Team Red is in power, they also have to be careful with their messaging. They can’t afford to anger and alienate the average independent voter:
- With the US midterm elections coming in November 2026, you’re going to find Team Yellow in pole position once more.
- If Team Yellow is feeling cheerful about their financial destiny, chances are, they will continue to vote Red in the midterms.
- However, if Team Yellow is feeling sour about their financial destiny, well, they might just vote Blue.
This is not about ideology. This is about dollars and cents. In the words of James Carville: ‘It’s the economy, stupid.’
- So, forget all the rhetoric. Forget all the posturing. Really, what it comes down to is this: How does Team Yellow actually feel about the economy? Is it improving? Or is it getting worse?
- As America’s new trade policy unfolds, I’m willing to bet that there will be room for adjustments, revisions, and even deviations. Why? Well, why not? It’s about the need to accommodate the feelings of Team Yellow.
- So, contrary to what the media is saying, no apocalyptic policy is truly set in stone here. Everything is negotiable, even if the players in this high-stakes poker game may bluff and claim otherwise.
Regards,
John Ling
Analyst, Wealth Morning
(This article is the author’s personal opinion and commentary only. It is general in nature and should not be construed as any financial or investment advice. Wealth Morning offers Managed Account Services for Wholesale or Eligible investors as defined in the Financial Markets Conduct Act 2013.)