Global Opportunities Beyond the Radar

3 Critical Metals: What’s the Outlook for Investors?

 

It has to be one of the most deeply underappreciated films of the last 30 years.

I saw it shortly after it was released in 1993. I was at university at the time and enjoyed it so much I had its poster pinned on the backside of my door for some years.

 Source: Printerval / Creative Commons

 

A Bronx Tale stars Chazz Palminteri and Robert De Niro. It’s about a young man growing up trying to measure worth in a tough and changing neighbourhood.

Turns out this movie is also a favourite of professor and author Gad Saad. In his book, The Saad Truth About Happiness, I discovered that Saad also learnt from one of the movie’s tests in choosing a wife.

Sonny, the Mafia boss, befriends our hero, young Calogero.

When there’s a looming date with a beautiful girl, Sonny dispenses the wisdom of the door test:

‘Namely, he instructs him to open the passenger door for his date and come around the back of the car. If the girl scooches over to the driver’s side to unlock the door, then she is a considerate person. If she fails to do so, in the infamous words of Sonny: “Listen to me, kid. If she doesn’t reach over and lift up that button for you so you could get in, that means she is a selfish broad and all you’ve seen is the tip of the iceberg. You dump her and you dump her fast.”’

Like Professor Saad, I recalled this positive lesson when I met my future wife. She was helping to clean up after a party.

It has been a wonderful union ever since.

 

Key life decisions for happiness

 


Source: Amazon

 

Saad advocates that the key life decisions a person will make are: the right life partner and the ideal job.

This makes logical sense, since you’ll probably spend most of your life with that person and doing that work.

Of course, things may not work out in these areas for everyone on their first attempts. Mistakes are often the best teachers.

On the work front, I would add that if you can find work that derives most of its value beyond selling your time, you’ll likely do a whole lot better.

For example, I recently met a young video producer. He was excitedly telling me about his plans to build a business around producing corporate videos. My hesitation was that all his plans revolved around him and his partner selling their time. Job by job. Hour by hour.

Having invested in such a business before, I’d learnt that the real key was creating the overall media solution and taking a percentage of the returns.

And this is what we try to do as investors. Find businesses where our investment can be levered and compounded many times over, while minimising our risks.

While money does not by itself seem to produce happiness, it can increase life satisfaction.

As investors, we invest to improve our lives and that of our families.

Happiness is not something we can guarantee, lest of all counsel on.

But we can share with you a view from over 30 years of investing in markets, on how to do it in the most satisfying way.

 

Investing in what makes sense to you

 

One of the largest holdings in my own portfolio is a commodity / resources stock. I’ll share that with you shortly. Turns out, when it comes to investing, I also have a bias.

First, as a value investor, I like things I can see and understand.

Second, when their prospects and intrinsic value are underpriced, then I’m excited.

So, yes, you won’t find very many software companies in my portfolio. These businesses are based on the ephemeral. Unseen trends and processes that change. Assets that are more goodwill than tangible.

That’s not to say that some software companies have not done extremely well. They have. It’s just that the risk is amplified when you’re paying big premiums on earnings or intangible assets.

In contrast, the beauty with a commodity business is that the underlying resources have a global market price. That price has a projected outlook under bull and bear scenarios.

Occasionally, the market misprices these companies.

There will be some fear over the iron-ore price. The oil price. The copper price. At the moment around China’s slowdown.

Sometimes the slowdown is oversold. There are other areas of imminent demand that are overlooked.

Sometimes geopolitical conditions and government programmes give rise to rapid demand in certain metals.

All this affords robust opportunity for the value investor.

We’re constantly looking to measure the integrity of things.

It’s an approach not dissimilar to finding a considerate wife…

 

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