The British SAS have a famous saying: ‘Who Dares Wins’.
It means that those who have the audacity will succeed.
When it comes to investing, that audacity is also about being smart. Investing in the right instrument at the right time.
Around 2016, working in offshore finance, I had a stint working with a Bitcoin fund.
It was among the world’s first regulated funds to invest in the cryptocurrency.
Predictably, it did very well with performance of over 70% in 2016 alone. Though that was just getting started.
Bitcoin Fund office, Jersey, 2016. Source: Author
Back then, we saw unparalleled areas of upside despite Bitcoin’s risks and structural inadequacies:
- Lots of volatility and illiquidity in the market.
- Scant regulation and a chaotic environment.
- Upside as a medium of exchange (Microsoft, Expedia, Dell, Overstock, Virgin Galactic, and LOT Polish Airlines were early acceptors).
- Limited supply in a closing cap of 21 million coins (which is not expected to be fully reached until 2140).
Of course, things changed as we went on.
Bitcoin did not become a popular medium of exchange because its feature as a speculative instrument took off.
By Christmas 2016, it had only reached the NZD equivalent of about $1,300 when people were talking about using Bitcoin as currency. Yet by early 2020, it had grown to over $10,000.
Late 2020 was when the action started happening. It took flight as a speculation on its hedge value against fiat currencies, reaching a high of over $85,000 by late 2021.
It was a case of ‘who dares wins’.
What happened in 2020–21?
Governments and central banks started ‘printing’ a lot of money to subsidise their Covid lockdowns.
Source: Google Finance
Today, I would not invest in Bitcoin personally.
No, sir. The risk is entirely different at around $50,000, compared to when I began working with it at $600. Nor at $10,000+ is it a realistic medium of exchange. And it has proven quite slow to transact anyway. Perhaps it’s a case of ‘who dares’ having already dared?
Some say Bitcoin may go to $80,000+ again. But at $50,000, that is riding enormous risk and potential total loss to possibly get 60%. The days of 9,000%+ are probably gone.
Today, Bitcoin seems a very high-risk speculative instrument without any asset backing. It faces wide competition from other emerging cryptocurrencies. And, at some point, likely regulation.
Yes, things have moved on. Now the ordinary investor needs to beware of dubious promoters seeking the johnny-come-latelies.
But there are some valuable lessons from the founders of this fund.
What exactly was in their background that drew them so magnetically to Bitcoin in 2016?
And where might the next interesting opportunity be emerging?
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